Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
